The power of words and numbers

Phew, late blip tonight. I hope I can catch up on journals tomorrow night.

I've just hosted the first of a neighbourly initiative to meet at someone's house for something simple. My place tonight with dessert and a bit of telly. It was good.

All the talk in the office today has centred around the scientists assessed probabilities (not predictions) of quake activity over the next year, and the newspaper's headlines.

"Big quake risk put at 23%".

"What you have lived through - 6700 seismic shocks".

"But what's next? 23% chance of a 6.0 to7.0 quake in the next 12 months".

"It's now thought we are looking at a longer-term seismic series".

Well, I think we know we're in something long-term. There is plenty of living to be done too. I honestly don't know how I'd cope if we had a third large quake. But you what? A 23% chance of a large earthquake means we have a 77% chance we won't have a large quake in the next 12 months.

That's the way I prefer to live.