Christmas Jigsaw No. 5 (and final!)

This morning I delivered some xmas presents and did some housework, then settled down this afternoon to watch the latest James Bond film. I’d bought it as lots had said it was the best ever, it was good (albeit very long) but I still prefer Skyfall. 

Boris is still dithering on Covid restrictions due to insufficient data. My career was in independently assessing how banks managed risk, and this logic drives me nuts as risk, by definition, is an uncertain outcome. So when faced with a potentially material risk crystallising, you take the most cost effective, timely and proportionate action to mitigate it and reduce the impact of the worst happening. Then you adjust your actions in light of updated data. The worst case might not happen, but to do otherwise is to gamble, and if you’re wrong you’re too late and the cost (in this case in lives as well as financial) would swamp the cost of the early action (and with Covid the remedial controls would last a lot longer). 

Day 645 / Day 12 of Plan B (for my record only)
Nicola Sturgeon is imposing new restrictions in Scotland from Boxing Day. Hogmanay events are being cancelled and no football fans will be allowed in stadiums to watch matches. Crowds at outdoor public events will be capped at 500, and at 100 standing or 200 seated at indoor public events. Indoor hospitality venues will return to table service for up to 3 weeks and no more than three households can sit in one group. Boris rules out restrictions before xmas, but will reportedly reveal his decision about restrictions after xmas in the next 48 hours. The Queen led by example again by cancelling her family gathering in Sandringham, and remaining at Windsor. The Treasury has finally announced £1bn in extra business support for the hospitality and leisure sectors, including Statutory Sick Pay rebates, a new grant scheme and further funding via the Culture Recovery Fund. There were 90,629 new cases (caveated by the removal of some cases previously reported) - let’s hope the warnings by the CMO and the subsequent behavioural change in a lot of people has slowing the increase. Staff shortages are already leading to delays and cancellations on the trains. The Omicron variant is already the dominant variant in the US, making up 73% of new cases per the CDC.